617.778.1200 info@serlinhaley.com
Former vice-president Mike Pence

“Not feeling the love” in New Hampshire

Former vice-president Mike Pence

New Hampshire likes being the center of the political universe.  But this year feels different.

Despite hosting high-profile congressional races that could determine control of both houses of Congress, New Hampshire has largely idled on the periphery while the pundit class focuses on other swing states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona.

One key metric:  the number of visits by aspiring politicians, especially those with presidential ambitions.  This year lacks the usual carousel of politicians rotating through the state.  President Biden has not stopped by for six months.  Vice-president Kamala Harris and other big-name Democrats – Senators Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, to name a few – have not ventured any closer than Boston.  Former presidential aspirants Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg did not show up until the weekend before the Nov. 8 election.

Republicans, too, are mostly keeping their distance.  Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have merely called in endorsements from Florida.  Tim Scott, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Kristi Noem have all been noticeably absent.  Ted Cruz has not been seen here since before the September primary.

There have been a few exceptions.  Nikki Haley, Rick Scott, and Cory Booker fanned out in support of their parties’ nominees last month, and a few other notables – Mike Pompeo, Larry Hogan and Mike Pence – have jetted in and out to give speeches or attend fundraisers, but without stopping to campaign or to otherwise press the flesh.

At least two factors seem to be at play.  Democrats are openly talking about changing the primary schedule, potentially dimming New Hampshire’s luster by robbing it of its first-in-the-nation status.  And Republicans seemed to hand Democrats a gift in September by running three MAGA partisans for Congress rather than candidates hewing closer to the political center.

This all could change if any of these three pull off upsets next week.  As the election nears, former brigadier general Don Bolduc and congressional candidates Karoline Leavitt and Bob Burns have been running stronger races than expected, and at least two of these races are now being widely viewed as toss-ups.  Republican PACs, which mostly withdrew from the state’s congressional races after the primaries, have returned to the airwaves in recent weeks as these races tightened.