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“Underestimated”

Connecticut and Vermont are both in New England, but in many ways the two states could not be more different.  But both held gubernatorial primaries yesterday that left observers scratching their heads.

In Connecticut, both parties nominated deep-pocketed businessmen who promised pragmatic responses to the Nutmeg State’s fiscal woes.  On the Democratic side, party leaders breathed a sigh of relief as Ned Lamont won the primary over Joe Ganim, whose tenure as mayor of Bridgeport was interrupted by six years in prison for public corruption.  Lamont, who has been a prominent sideline presence in the state’s politics since a 2006 campaign in which he prevented U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman from being renominated by his own party, immediately pledged to turn the state around by “getting everybody at the table,” including business, labor, and both Republicans and Democrats.

The bigger surprise came on the Republican side, where a crowded field and low turnout made the outcome hard to predict.  Emerging victorious from this scrum came Bob Stefanowski, whose self-funded campaign edged out four other contenders, including the presumed front-runner, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton, who had been endorsed by the party convention.  “I think it’s fair to say this campaign’s been underestimated from the start,” Stefanowski told supporters, before repeating his campaign pledge to reduce and eventually eliminate the state income tax.

Although Connecticut tends to vote “blue,” the current Democratic incumbent, Dannel Malloy, is ranked by polls as the least popular governor in the nation.  Republicans view the state as a prime pick-up opportunity in November, but Lamont was quick to point out that he received far more primary votes than all five Republican candidates combined.


In Vermont, by contrast, Gov. Phil Scott was considered so popular on both sides of the aisle that he did not even draw a respectable Republican challenger.  At least that was the view until yesterday, when his only primary opponent, a little-known grocer named Keith Stern, stunned Scott by taking one-third of the Republican vote.  Most politicians would be thrilled, of course, to emerge from an election with a 2:1 margin, but Vermonters read the results as a serious rebuke to Scott, since Stern, as one commentator described him, “was almost totally unknown to the voters, had never before run for office, and didn’t know how to do it.”

The Democratic primary turned heads, too – and not just because a 14-year-old, Ethan Sonneborn, was treated as a serious candidate.  (By the media, if not by voters.)  Vermont instead made history by nominating a transgender woman, Christine Hallquist, to carry the Democratic mantle into November’s elections.  Hallquist, who transitioned to female while engineering a 12-year turnaround of a troubled Vermont electric cooperative, garnered 40% in a four-candidate field by convincing Democratic voters that she had the best platform for improving the state’s economy, especially in rural areas.  This was a remarkable feat, since polls as recently as July poll indicated that 55% of Democratic voters did not know who she was, and only 18% viewed her favorably.

Gov. Scott remains a heavy favorite to win re-election in November.  But the Republican Governors Association was quick to attack Hallquist for supporting tax increases, a sign that the party is concerned that her campaign, under the right circumstances, could produce a similar surprise in November.

Photos: Stefanowski; Hallquist [Credits: NBC Connecticut, New York Times]